2004 United States Senate election in Florida

2004 United States Senate election in Florida

November 2, 2004

Nominee Mel Martínez Betty Castor Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 3,672,864 3,590,201 Percentage 49.43% 48.32%

County results Martinez:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Castor:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Bob Graham Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Mel Martínez Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Graham decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Graham made an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Republican Mel Martínez won the open seat with 49.4% of the vote to Democratic nominee Betty Castor's 48.3%. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the closest race of the 2004 Senate election cycle. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Florida for this seat since 1974.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Betty Castor, former President of the University of South Florida, former Education Commissioner of Florida, and former State Senator
• Peter Deutsch, U.S. Representative from Broward County
• Bernard Klein, businessman
• Alex Penelas, Mayor of Miami-Dade County

Results

County results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Betty Castor	669,346	58.1%
	Democratic	Peter Deutsch	321,922	27.9%
	Democratic	Alex Penelas	115,898	10.1%
	Democratic	Bernard E. Klein	45,347	3.9%
Total votes			1,152,513	100.0%

Republican primary

Martínez was supported by the Bush Administration.

Candidates

• Johnnie Byrd, State Representative from Plant City
• Doug Gallagher, businessman
• Larry Klayman, attorney
• William Kogut
• Sonya March
• Mel Martínez, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 1994
• Bill McCollum, former U.S. Representative and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2000
• Karen Saull

Results

County results

Republican Primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mel Martínez	522,994	44.9%
	Republican	Bill McCollum	360,474	30.9%
	Republican	Doug Gallagher	158,360	13.6%
	Republican	Johnnie Byrd	68,982	5.9%
	Republican	Karen Saull	20,365	1.8%
	Republican	Sonya March	17,804	1.5%
	Republican	Larry Klayman	13,257	1.1%
	Republican	William Billy Kogut	3,695	0.3%
Total votes			1,165,931	100.0%

General election

Candidates

• Dennis Bradley (V), activist
• Betty Castor (D), former State Senator
• Mel Martínez (R), Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R (flip)	November 1, 2004

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Betty Castor (D) Mel Martínez (R) Other Undecided Rasmussen Reports August 24 500 ± 4.5% 44% 44% Survey USA September 12 602 ± 4.1% 49% 45% 5% 1% Quinnipiac September 18–21, 2004 819 ± 3.4 43% 42% 0% 14% Gallup September 18 674 ± 4.0% 51% 45% 0% 4% Survey USA October 1 706 ± 3.8% 46% 50% 3% 1% Quinnipiac October 1–5, 2004 717 ± 3.7 47% 48% 0% 5% Mason-Dixon October 4 625 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 1% 12% UNF October 10 641 ± 4.0% 38% 35% 15% 12% Mason-Dixon October 14 625 ± 4.0% 45% 45% 1% 9% Survey USA October 15 596 ± 4.1% 47% 49% 3% 1% Quinnipiac October 15–19, 2004 808 ± 3.5 47% 47% 0% 5% Research 2000 October 18 48% 48% 4% 4% Miami Herald October 19 800 ± 3.5% 44% 44% Survey USA October 22 741 ± 3.7% 50% 47% Insider Advantage October 22 400 ± 5.0% 44% 46% Quinnipiac October 22–26, 2004 944 ± 3.2 46% 49% 0% 5% The New York Times October 23 802 ± 3.0% 47% 44% 0% 10% Mason Dixon October 26 625 ± 4.0% 46% 47% 6% CNN/USA Today/Gallup October 28 1138 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 5% Quinnipiac University October 31 1098 ± 3.0% 44% 49% 6% Zogby International October 31 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% 0% 7%

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2004

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Melquíades Rafael Martínez Ruiz	3,672,864	49.43%	+11.9%
	Democratic	Elizabeth Castor	3,590,201	48.32%	−14.15%
	Veterans	Dennis F. Bradley	166,642	2.24%	+2.24%
	Write-ins		187	0.00%	+0.0%
Majority			82,663	1.11%	−23.83%
Turnout			7,429,894	70.92%	+24.08%
Total votes			7,429,894	100.00%	+3,529,732
	Republican gain from Democratic		Swing

Results by County

2004 United States Senate Election in Florida (By County)

County	Mel Martínez Republican		Betty Castor Democratic		Various Candidates Other Parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Alachua	43,074	39.63%	63,809	58.71%	1,802	1.65%	-20,735	-19.08%	108,685
Baker	6,815	69.16%	2,853	28.95%	186	1.89%	3,962	40.21%	9,854
Bay	49,639	67.63%	22,190	30.23%	1,564	2.13%	27,449	37.40%	73,393
Bradford	6,534	60.83%	3,938	36.66%	270	2.51%	3,596	24.17%	10,742
Brevard	142,394	54.44%	111,477	42.62%	7,682	2.94%	30,917	11.82%	261,553
Broward	231,266	33.63%	442,728	64.37%	13,780	2.00%	-211,462	-30.74%	687,774
Calhoun	3,133	53.70%	2,526	43.30%	175	3.00%	607	10.40%	5,834
Charlotte	43,079	55.48%	32,837	42.29%	1,729	2.23%	10,242	13.19%	77,645
Citrus	33,998	49.68%	31,699	46.32%	2,742	4.01%	2,299	3.36%	68,439
Clay	58,131	72.24%	20,831	25.89%	1,503	1.86%	37,300	46.35%	80,465
Collier	81,948	65.97%	40,332	32.47%	1,934	1.56%	41,616	33.50%	124,214
Columbia	14,014	57.15%	9,780	39.89%	726	2.96%	4,234	17.26%	24,520
DeSoto	4,994	53.58%	4,031	43.25%	295	3.17%	963	10.33%	9,320
Dixie	3,322	52.67%	2,735	43.36%	250	3.97%	587	9.31%	6,307
Duval	205,001	54.68%	163,748	43.68%	6,160	1.64%	41,253	11.00%	374,909
Escambia	88,787	63.56%	48,274	34.56%	2,632	1.88%	40,513	29.00%	139,693
Flagler	18,294	48.13%	18,812	49.49%	904	2.38%	-518	-1.36%	38,010
Franklin	2,706	47.13%	2,886	50.26%	150	2.61%	-180	-3.13%	5,742
Gadsden	5,230	25.15%	15,246	73.33%	316	1.52%	-10,016	-48.18%	20,792
Gilchrist	4,060	58.87%	2,578	37.38%	258	3.74%	1,482	21.49%	6,896
Glades	2,147	52.15%	1,821	44.23%	149	3.62%	326	7.92%	4,117
Gulf	4,086	57.36%	2,858	40.12%	180	2.53%	1,228	17.24%	7,124
Hamilton	2,206	44.75%	2,597	52.68%	127	2.58%	-391	-7.93%	4,930
Hardee	4,024	56.38%	2,806	39.32%	307	4.30%	1,218	17.06%	7,137
Hendry	5,350	55.75%	4,027	41.97%	219	2.28%	1,323	13.78%	9,596
Hernando	36,557	46.08%	39,634	49.96%	3,143	3.96%	-3,077	-3.88%	79,334
Highlands	22,326	54.72%	17,196	42.15%	1,278	3.13%	5,130	12.57%	40,800
Hillsborough	207,331	46.29%	230,298	51.42%	10,261	2.29%	-22,967	-5.13%	447,890
Holmes	5,114	63.42%	2,608	32.34%	342	4.24%	2,506	31.08%	8,064
Indian River	34,338	57.82%	23,511	39.59%	1,543	2.60%	10,827	18.23%	59,392
Jackson	10,449	53.73%	8,605	44.24%	395	2.04%	1,844	9.49%	19,449
Jefferson	2,722	36.93%	4,504	61.10%	145	1.97%	-1,782	-24.17%	7,371
Lafayette	1,768	54.57%	1,390	42.90%	82	2.53%	378	11.67%	3,240
Lake	68,425	56.37%	49,635	40.89%	3,319	2.73%	18,790	15.48%	121,379
Lee	139,810	59.90%	89,048	38.15%	4,531	1.94%	50,762	21.75%	233,389
Leon	45,453	34.09%	86,180	64.64%	1,691	1.27%	-40,727	-30.55%	133,324
Levy	8,735	53.39%	7,129	43.57%	497	3.04%	1,606	9.82%	16,361
Liberty	1,448	48.75%	1,459	49.12%	63	2.12%	-11	-0.37%	2,970
Madison	3,318	40.58%	4,640	56.74%	219	2.68%	-1,322	-16.16%	8,177
Manatee	72,829	51.53%	64,795	45.85%	3,699	2.62%	8,034	5.68%	141,323
Marion	73,530	53.23%	60,814	44.02%	3,799	2.75%	12,716	9.21%	138,143
Martin	39,076	55.41%	29,868	42.35%	1,579	2.23%	9,208	13.06%	70,523
Miami-Dade	367,867	49.21%	366,482	49.02%	13,202	1.77%	1,385	0.19%	747,551
Monroe	18,075	47.19%	18,961	49.50%	1,267	3.31%	-886	-2.31%	38,303
Nassau	21,893	68.40%	9,519	29.74%	595	1.86%	12,374	38.66%	32,007
Okaloosa	65,146	74.71%	19,645	22.53%	2,413	2.77%	45,501	52.18%	87,204
Okeechobee	5,959	50.00%	5,464	45.84%	496	4.16%	495	4.16%	11,919
Orange	188,121	49.15%	187,549	49.00%	7,081	1.85%	572	0.15%	382,751
Osceola	42,103	52.00%	36,569	45.16%	2,296	2.84%	5,534	6.84%	80,968
Palm Beach	200,442	37.96%	318,042	60.23%	9,566	1.81%	-117,600	-22.27%	528,050
Pasco	89,400	48.01%	90,761	48.74%	6,044	3.24%	-1,361	-0.73%	186,205
Pinellas	197,640	42.55%	254,451	54.78%	12,379	2.66%	-56,811	-12.23%	464,470
Polk	108,774	52.28%	93,231	44.81%	6,051	2.91%	15,543	7.47%	208,056
Putnam	15,941	52.23%	13,701	44.89%	876	2.87%	2,240	7.34%	30,518
St. Johns	56,251	66.19%	27,319	32.14%	1,420	1.67%	28,932	34.05%	84,990
St. Lucie	44,436	45.34%	50,660	51.69%	2,905	2.96%	-6,224	-6.35%	98,001
Santa Rosa	49,149	74.65%	15,165	23.03%	1,524	2.31%	33,984	51.62%	65,838
Sarasota	95,425	50.08%	91,651	48.10%	3,455	1.81%	3,774	1.98%	190,531
Seminole	102,898	56.11%	76,579	41.76%	3,914	2.13%	26,319	14.35%	183,391
Sumter	17,929	57.05%	12,844	40.87%	656	2.09%	5,085	16.18%	31,429
Suwannee	9,095	58.45%	6,069	39.00%	397	2.55%	2,629	19.45%	15,561
Taylor	4,241	50.17%	3,972	46.98%	241	2.85%	269	3.19%	8,454
Union	2,874	62.49%	1,632	35.49%	93	2.05%	1,242	27.00%	4,599
Volusia	104,032	46.21%	114,932	51.05%	6,174	2.74%	-10,900	-4.84%	225,138
Wakulla	5,240	45.10%	6,048	52.05%	331	2.85%	-808	-6.95%	11,619
Walton	16,038	68.56%	6,770	28.94%	585	2.50%	9,268	39.62%	23,393
Washington	6,414	63.45%	3,452	34.15%	242	2.39%	2,962	29.30%	10,108
Totals	3,672,864	49.43%	3,590,201	48.32%	166,829	2.24%	82,663	1.11%	7,429,894

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Calhoun (Largest city: Blountstown)
• Citrus (Largest city: Homosassa Springs)
• Dixie (Largest city: Cross City)
• Glades (Largest city: Moore Haven)
• Gulf (Largest city: Port St. Joe)
• Levy (Largest city: Williston)
• Putnam (Largest city: Palatka)
• Taylor (Largest city: Perry)
• Jackson (Largest city: Marianna)
• Lafayette (Largest city: Mayo)
• Union (Largest city: Lake Butler)
• Washington (Largest city: Chipley)
• Brevard (largest municipality: Palm Bay)
• Okeechobee (largest municipality: Okeechobee)
• Polk (largest municipality: Lakeland)
• Miami-Dade (largest city: Miami)
• Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
• Orange (Largest city: Orlando)
• Escambia (Largest city: Pensacola)
• Hendry (Largest city: Clewiston)
• Marion (Largest city: Ocala)
• Hardee (Largest city: Wachula)
• Highlands (Largest city: Sebring)
• Indian River (Largest city: Sebastian)
• Lake (Largest city: Clermont)
• Lee (Largest city: Cape Coral)
• Suwannee (Largest city: Live Oak)
• Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
• Charlotte (Largest city: Charlotte)
• Columbia (Largest city: Lake City)
• DeSoto (Largest city: Arcadia)
• Gilchrist (Largest city: Trenton)
• Sumter (Largest city: The Villages)
• Bradford (Largest city: Starke)
• Baker (Largest city: Macclenny)
• Bay (Largest city: Panama City)
• Clay (Largest city: Lakeside)
• Holmes (Largest city: Bonifay)
• Manatee (Largest city: Bradenton)
• Martin (Largest city: Palm City)
• Nassau (Largest city: Yulee)
• St. Johns (Largest city: St. Johns)
• Walton (Largest city: Miramar Beach)
• Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

See also

• 2004 United States Senate elections

External links

• WTSP-TV (Tampa Bay) website
• WKMG-TV (Orlando) website

Debates

• Florida Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 18, 2004
• Florida Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 25, 2004

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

• Betty Castor
• Peter Deutsch
• Alex Penelas
• Bernard E. Klein

Republicans

• Mel Martínez
• Bill McCollum
• Doug Gallagher
• Johnnie Byrd
• Sonya March
• Larry Klayman
• William Billy Kogut